Abstracts for International Conference on the Demography of Disasters: Implications for Future Policy on Development and Resil

S FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE DEMOGRAPHY OF DISASTERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE POLICY ON DEVELOPMENT AND RESILIENCE Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi Title: Demographic Consequences of the 2003 Bam Earthquake in Iran Iran is a seismically active country crossed by several major fault lines resulting in frequent and often destructive earthquakes. This paper aims to explore demographic consequences of the massive earthquake in Bam in 2003, where it left more than 34000 dead. Using the 2006 and 2011 censuses and data from registration resources, we investigate mortality, fertility and migration pattern changes affected by the 2003 earthquake in the district of Bam and the greater region of Kerman province. Applying the own-children method to censuses, the level and pattern of fertility during the 2000s is demonstrated to understand the extent to which fertility has been affected by the earthquake. Information from the registration data sets are also analysed to explore contemporary changes in the registered births, deaths and in/out migration flows in the years before and after the earthquake. The results indicate that despite the huge number of mortalities Bam’s population increased substantially during the year following the earthquake. The pattern of fertility follows the decline pattern of the region during 1995 to 2003, but it drops immediately in 2004, and soon recovers reaching to the level before 2003. Inmigration following the Bam earthquake supports the argument that job opportunities and incentives following disasters attract people particularly ‘incentive hunters’ and unemployed people from other regions to the affected area. Reconstruction and resettlement of the city supports the resilience theory. Potential capabilities in Bam as well as comprehensive and strategic support from the state created new opportunities for both the native population and migrants. The findings suggest that massive destruction such as the 2003 Bam earthquake can rejuvenate demographic patterns of the affected population.